Stitching the Future: Trade Realignments and the Sustainability Imperative for Bangladesh’s RMG Industry

Bangladesh’s apparel sector enters the final quarter of 2025 amid shifting trade routes, tariff realignments, and growing investment interest from the largest RMG exporter of the world; China. As China’s exporters face escalating U.S. tariffs, many are diversifying their manufacturing bases, and Bangladesh is emerging as a potential beneficiary. 

Chinese manufacturers, squeezed by reciprocal tariffs in the ongoing U.S.–China trade standoff, are increasingly turning to Bangladesh as their next production base. Between April and June 2025, Bangladesh received over US $53 million in Chinese investment, of which roughly US $30 million flowed directly into textiles. More than 20 apparel factories in Bangladesh have received Chinese investment, including both new ventures and leased operations in the last one year. These are early signs of FDI inflow in textiles and garments and are expected to keep growing unless there are any significant changes in reciprocal tariff imposed by the US. On the other hand, Bangladesh earned $2.12 billion from RMG exports to the US in July-Sept’25, up from $1.87 billion in the same period a year earlier. This is a continuation of the surge in Bangladesh’s apparel exports to the US, which grew by 21.7 percent year-on-year between January and July 2025, compared to the same period in 2024. 

At the same time, the country faces critical structural transitions. As Bangladesh prepares to graduate from LDC status in 2026, we face a significant shift in our trade dynamics with the EU. This change will gradually phase out our current duty-free access under the GSP Everything but Arms scheme by 2029. If we’re unable to qualify for the GSP Plus arrangement, apparel exports could be subject to tariffs of up to 11.8 percent, compared to the current zero rate. Even under the standard GSP framework, duties could rise to 9.5 percent. This makes it essential for us to meet GSP Plus criteria to maintain our competitiveness in the European market. 

The sustainability imperative is clear. With dyeing and finishing accounting for more than 60 percent of electricity use in the textile value chain, fossil-fuel dependence threatens export competitiveness once potential carbon taxes take effect in the future. Achieving 50 percent greenhouse-gas reduction in RMG sector by 2030 will require an estimated US $6.6 billion in investment across energy-efficient machinery, rooftop solar, and investments in greening the energy ecosystem. Existing instruments, such as the Bangladesh Bank’s Green Transformation Fund (US $390 million), IDCOL’s GCF credit lines (US $250 million), and ADB’s Third PPIDF facility (US $232 million), represent a start, but unlocking larger flows of blended finance will be vital. 

According to a study conducted by a2i and ILO, another critical variable came into highlight that automation, could disrupt around 60 percent of apparel jobs by 2040, disproportionately affecting women workers. Ensuring a “just transition” therefore requires simultaneous investment in reskilling, childcare, and social protection, along with workplace reforms that give workers a voice in technological change. Energy-efficient upgrades that reduce heat stress could prevent projected productivity losses equivalent to US $7.6 billion in exports and over 73,000 jobs by 2030 as per research conducted by ETI Bangladesh. 

It is within this shifting macroeconomic and social context that the Oporajita Initiative – Phase 2 was officially launched on September 22, 2025, reaffirming a commitment to empower women and ensuring just transition for them. Initiated by the H&M Foundation and co-funded by Sweden and COS, with The Asia Foundation as the backbone organization, and LightCastle Partners as a key partner, Oporajita is a first-of-its-kind collective impact initiative in Bangladesh, driving systems-level change through collaboration with multiple partner organizations. 

To further this mission, LightCastle Partners Organised an Exclusive Networking Session on “Stitching Tomorrow: The 2030 Outlook for Bangladesh’s RMG Industry” Under the Oporajita Phase 2 Initiative, on September 25, bringing RMG ecosystem leaders together from H&M Foundation, DIFE, BGMEA, ILO, IDCOL, and leading private sector leaders to exchange insights on the future of Bangladesh’s RMG sector. The discussion emphasized that Bangladesh’s next competitive advantage will come not from scale alone, but from clean energy, skilled labour, and credible compliance performance that meets global standard. 

Building on this momentum, Bunon 2030 will soon host a sector-specific close door diagnostic session on how green energy transition can drive the RMG sector’s enhanced competitiveness through decarbonization efforts. This upcoming forum will unite academicians, RMG leaders, financiers, policymakers, and sustainability leaders to co-design solutions that strengthen both environmental performance and industrial competitiveness. 

Going forward, Bunon 2030, led by LightCastle Partners, under the Oporajita Collective Impact Initiative, will continue to engage stakeholders across Bangladesh’s apparel industry to exchange ideas, inform policy, and advance practical steps toward sustainability.